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MiKlip

Logo_FonaLogo_BMBF

 

 

 

MiKlip (German: Mittelfristige Klima-Prognosen) is a German research program with the aim to develop a decadal climate prediction system (Marotzke et al., 2016). MiKlip is organized into 5 Modules:

 

MiKlip_Structure

 

The global prediction system uses the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth-System Model MPI-ESM.

Within Module C the regionalization of the global predictions is performed with COSMO-CLM. During the first phase of MiKlip two additional RCMs – namely REMO and WRF were tested.

 

To estimate the skill of the predictions, large sets of initialized decadal hindcasts are performed, usually covering the period after 1960 with annually starting 10-year simulations. In contrast to the un-initialized simulations (historical simulations in CMIP) the hindcast derive their initial conditions from observations via assimilation experiments using atmospheric and oceanic re-analysis.

 

Within MiKlip up to now four generations of hindcasts have been generated, gradually testing the potential to improve the predictions:

1. baseline0 (= CMIP5)

    • GCM:  MPI-ESM-LR – Atmosphere: ECHAM6 T63L47;Ocean: MPI-OM  1.5° L40
    • Initialization -  Ocean: Anomalies of temperature and salinity from an MPI-OM forced by NCEP re-analysis
    • Ensemble-size - 10 member every 5-years (1960, 1965,...), 3 members in-between years (1961, 1962,...)
    • Starting years: 1960 – 2011 (e.g. simulation period decadal1960 = 01.01.1961 – 31.12.1970) ·

2. baseline1

  • GCM:  MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-LR (Atmosphere: T63L95, Ocean: 0.4° TP L40)
  • Initialization – Ocean – anomalies from ORA S4 ocean re-analysis, Atmosphere – full field ERA
  • Ensemble size – 10 member (LR), 5 member (MR)
  • Starting years: 1960 – 2016 (e.g. simulation period decadal1960 = 01.01.1961 – 31.12.1970)

3. prototype

  • GCM:  MPI-ESM-LR
  • Initialization – Ocean – full field from ORA S4 and GECCO2 ocean re-analysis, Atmosphere – full field ERA
  • Ensemble size – 15 (ORA S4 init.) + 15 (GECCO2 init.)
  • Starting years: 1960 – 2014 (e.g. simulation period decadal1960 = 01.01.1961 – 31.12.1970)

4. preop (pre operational)

  • GCM:  MPI-ESM-HR  (Atm: T127L95, Ocean: 0.4° TP L40)
  • Initialization – as baseline1
  • Ensemble size – 5 member (CMIP5 forcings) 10 member (CMIP6 forcings; in preparation)
  • Starting years: 1960 – 2016 (e.g. simulation period decadal1960 = 01.11.1960 – 31.12.1970)

Additionally experiments have been performed to investigate the climate variability and trend over the whole 20th century over Europe, including re-analysis driven simulations based on NCEP 20CR and ERA20CC, MPI_ESM-LR decadal hindcasts and historical simulations.

 

Model domain

For the downscaling over Europe the CORDEX Europe domain is used

 

MIKLILPII

 

For Europe, the simulations are performed on a rotated grid with the pole at 162°W longitude and 39.25°N latitude. The domain covers approximately the region from about 22°W to 45°E longitude and 27°N to 72°N latitude.

 

The resolutions applied are 0.44° (EUR-44) and 0.22° (EUR-22) and, for Central Europe, 0.0625° (CEUR-0625).

 

The CLM recommended setup is used for the simulations:

  • COSMO4.8_clm19 (CCLM4-8) for baseline0 and baseline1
  • COSMO5.0_clm9 (CCLM5-0) for prototype and preop

Simulations performed with COSMO CLM

Decadal Hindcasts

 

Ens. GenerationModel versionGridStarting yearsEnsemble members# Simulation years
baseline0CCLM4-8EUR-225 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000)10500
CCLM4-8CEUR-06255 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000)4200
baseline1CCLM4-8EUR-225 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000)10500
CCLM4-8EUR-4457 (annual 1960 – 2016)105700
prototype                     CCLM5-0EUR-225 (1960, 1970, 1980 1990 2000)150
preopCCLM5-0EUR-2257 (annual 1960 – 2016)5 (10)2850
20C_EURCCLM5-0EUR-22100 (annual 1910 – 2009)3                    3000

 

Evaluation Simulations

 

Ens. GenerationModel versionGridPeriodEnsemble members# Simulation years
ERA40                         CCLM4-8EUR-22      1961 - 2002                            

1

42

ERAInterimCCLM4-8EUR-221979 - 2010              132
ERA40+ERAInterimCCLM4-8EUR-221961 - 2010149
ERA40+ERAInterimCCLM4-8EUR-441961 - 2010149
ERA40+ERAInterimCCLM5-0EUR-221961 - 2016156
NCEP 20CRCCLM5-0EUR-22   1900 - 20093110
ERA20CFCCLM5-0EUR-221900 - 20101111

 

 

Un-initialized (historical) simulations

 

GCMModel versionGridPeriodEnsemble members# Simulation years
MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5)        CCLM4-8EUR-221961 - 2010149
MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5)CCLM4-8EUR-441961 - 2010749
MPI-ESM-HR (CMIP5)                    CCLM5-0EUR-22

1900 – 2030 (1961-2030)

rcp45 after 2005
3 (2)131 (70)

 

Additional Experiments

 

NameProjectDetails

Africa

MiKlip I DEPARTURE

Decadal predictions of the West-African Monsoon and tropical Atlantic cyclogenesis

3 RCMs (CCLM4-8, REMO, WRF)

Resolution 0.44° (extended CORDEX Africa

4 Decades, 3 Member

Central America/North-Atlantic (CANA)

MiKlip I MesoTel2-way nested coupling of MPI-ESM and CCLM
Regionally coupled oceanMiKlip II C1-WP1Interactive coupling of CCLM5-0/NEMO for Mediterranean- Nordic, and Baltic-Sea

Alternative SVAT

MiKlip II C1-WP2Decadal hindcasts (preop generation) with CCLM5-0-Weg3D

 

Many more experiments have been performed including statistical dynamical downscaling with CCLM.

 

Contributing Partners

 

MiKlip Phase II

KIT Karlsruhe: Christoph Kottmeier, Hendrik Feldmann, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Gerd Schädler, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marcus Breil, Natalie Laube, Julia Mömken, Benjamin Buldmann, Fanni Kelemen

DWD Offenbach: Barbara Früh, Sascha Brand

Goethe University Frankfurt: Bodo Ahrens, Anika Obermann, Nora Leps, Naveed Akhtar, Cristina Primo Ramos

University of Cologne: Mark Reyers

University Würzburg: Heiko Paeth, Jingmin LI

 



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